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Talent de bon augure. Réputé Ji

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WXChartsv1.0.25window.dataLayer=window.dataLayer||[];functiongt(){dataLayer.push(arguments);}gt('js',newDate());gt('config','UA--2');constbase_url="//wxcharts.com/";letdelay=0;functionload(){letinit=false;if(typeofinitialise==='function'){init=initialise();//Returns`true`ifinitialisationcompletedokay}if(!init){if(delayloadingWXChartsSorry,thissiteiscurrentlynotsupportedforyourscreenresolution.;TermsofUseByaccessingorusingwxcharts.com(the"site")youreetoadheretothefollowingterms:UseofSiteContentSharingofsitecontent(maps,plots)viasocialmedia,forums,emailetcispermittedandinfactencouredforallnon-commercialpurposes-providingthatanywatermarksarenotremoved/coveredorfullaccreditationisprovidedbywayofalinktowxcharts.com.Useofindividualimesonblogsorpersonalwebsitesisallowed,aslongasalinktowxcharts.comisprovided,andthatclickingontheimealsolinkstothesite.Automatedembeddingofmultipleimesisprohibited-pleasecontactwxcharts@metdesk.comforreviewifyouruse/plansmaybeinbreachoftheseterms.Commercialuseofthesitecontentisstrictlyprohibited.Thesitecontentshouldneverbedownloadedorcopiedforuseinaproductthatissoldforprofit.Ifyourequireweathermaps,plotsordataforyourbusiness,pleasegetintouchviasales@metdesk.comCommercialviewingofsiteispermittedatpresent,butthispolicymaybereviewedinfuture.InformationAboutUsThesiteisownedandoperatedbyMetDeskLimited,alimitedcompanyregisteredinEnglandundercompanynumber.Registeredaddress:HaleCourt,HaleRoad,Wendover,Buckinghamshire,HP226NJ,UK.Address:HaleCourt,HaleRoad,Wendover,Buckinghamshire,HP226NJ,UK.VATnumber:4.DataProtectionOfficer:GilesRipley.Emailaddress:GDPR@metdesk.com.Telephonenumber:.DisclaimerAnyrelianceyouplaceontheinformationcontainedinthesiteisstrictlyatyourownrisk.Weareunabletoguaranteeaccesstothemostup-to-dateinformationonthisservice.Theinformationailablehereshouldnotbeusedforoperationalpurposes.THEUSERASSUMESALLRISKASTOTHEUSEOFTHEDATAAND/ORINFORMATIONCONNTAINEDWITHINTHESITE.THISINFORMATIONISPROVIDED“ASIS”ANDWITHOUTREPRESENTATIONSORWARRANTIESOFANYKIND,EITHEREXPRESSORIMPLIED.ALLREPRESENTATIONSANDWARRANTIESAREDISCLAIMED,INCLUDING,BUTNOTLIMITEDTO,THEIMPLIEDWARRANTIESOFMERCHANTABILITYANDFITNESSFORAPARTICULARPURPOSE.INNOEVENTSHALLwxcharts.comORMETDESKLIMITEDBELIABLEFORDAMES,WHETHERDIRECT,SPECIAL,INDIRECT,INCIDENTAL,ORCONSEQUENTIAL,INCLUDINGLOSSOFPROFITS.PrivacyPolicyBACKGROUND:MetDeskLimitedunderstandsthatyourprivacyisimportanttoyouandthatyoucareabouthowyourpersonaldataisused.Werespectandvaluetheprivacyofeveryonewhovisitsthiswebsite,(“OurSite”)andwillonlycollectandusepersonaldatainwaysthataredescribedhere,andinawaythatisconsistentwithourobligationsandyourrightsunderthelaw.PleasereadthisPrivacyPolicycarefullyandensurethatyouunderstandit.YouracceptanceofthisPrivacyPolicyisdeemedtooccuruponyourfirstuseofOurSite.IfyoudonotacceptandreewiththisPrivacyPolicy,youmuststopusingOurSiteimmediately.DefinitionsandInterpretationInthisPolicythefollowingtermsshallhethefollowingmeanings:"Account"-meansanaccountrequiredtoaccessand/orusecertainareasandfeaturesofOurSite;"Cookie"-meansasmalltextfileplacedonyourcomputerordevicebyOurSitewhenyouvisitcertainpartsofOurSiteand/orwhenyouusecertainfeaturesofOurSite.DetailsoftheCookiesusedbyOurSitearesetoutinPart14,below;and"CookieLaw"-meanstherelevantpartsofthePrivacyandElectronicCommunications(ECDirective)Regulations2003;InformationAboutUsOurSiteisownedandoperatedbyMetDeskLimited,alimitedcompanyregisteredinEnglandundercompanynumber.Registeredaddress:HaleCourt,HaleRoad,Wendover,Buckinghamshire,HP226NJ,UK.Address:HaleCourt,HaleRoad,Wendover,Buckinghamshire,HP226NJ,UK.VATnumber:4.DataProtectionOfficer:GilesRipley.Emailaddress:GDPR@metdesk.com.Telephonenumber:.PostalAddress:HaleCourt,HaleRoad,Wendover,Buckinghamshire,HP226NJ,UK.WhatDoesThisPolicyCover?ThisPrivacyPolicyappliesonlytoyouruseofOurSite.OurSitemaycontainlinkstootherwebsites.Pleasenotethatwehenocontroloverhowyourdataiscollected,stored,orusedbyotherwebsitesandweadviseyoutochecktheprivacypoliciesofanysuchwebsitesbeforeprovidinganydatatothem.WhatisPersonalData?PersonaldataisdefinedbytheGeneralDataProtectionRegulation(EURegulation2016/679)(the“GDPR”)as‘anyinformationrelatingtoanidentifiablepersonwhocanbedirectlyorindirectlyidentifiedinparticularbyreferencetoanidentifier’.Personaldatais,insimplerterms,anyinformationaboutyouthatenablesyoutobeidentified.WXCHARTSPersonaldatacoversobviousinformationsuchasyournameandcontactdetails,butitalsocoverslessobviousinformationsuchasidentificationnumbers,electroniclocationdata,andotheronlineidentifiers.WhatAreMyRights?UndertheGDPR,youhethefollowingrights,whichwewillalwaysworktouphold:-Therighttobeinformedaboutourcollectionanduseofyourpersonaldata.ThisPrivacyPolicyshouldtellyoueverythingyouneedtoknow,butyoucanalwayscontactustofindoutmoreortoaskanyquestionsusingthedetailsinPart15.-Therighttoaccessthepersonaldataweholdaboutyou.Part13willtellyouhowtodothis.-Therighttoheyourpersonaldatarectifiedifanyofyourpersonaldataheldbyusisinaccurateorincomplete.PleasecontactususingthedetailsinPart15tofind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..Pleasewaitwhileweloadyourchart...Pleasewaitwhileweloadyourchart...Welcometowxcharts.comPleasesearchtosetyourhomelocation:skipGFS-GlobalForecastSystem-Issuingbody-NOAA,USA-VersWXCHARTSion15.1-Outputson0.25°x0.25°globallat/longrid-Run4xdailyat00/06/12/18UTC-Dataailableoutto384hours/16daysGEFS-GlobalEnsembleForecastSystem-Issuingbody-NOAA,USA-Outputson0.25°x0.25°globallat/longrid-30ensemblemembersplus1controlmember-Run4xdailyat00/06/12/18UTC-Dataailablehereoutto384hours/16daysECMWFHRES-HighresolutionModel-Issuingbody-ECMWF,Europe-Outputson0.1°x0.1°globallat/longrid-Fullrunpublished2xdailyat00/12UTC-Dataailableoutto360hours/15daysECMWFENS-Ensembleforecastmodel-Issuingbody-ECMWF,Europe-Outputson0.2°x0.2°globallat/longrid-50ensemblemembersplus1controlmember-Run2xdailyat00/12UTC-Dataailableoutto360hours/15days-NBOnlyWMOessentialtimestepsandvariablesailableonwxcharts.comatthistimeUKMOGlobalUnifiedModel-Issuingbody-UKMO,UnitedKingdom-Runona10kmglobalgrid-ailablehereonlyat2.5°x2.5°resolutionatthistime-Run2xdailyat00/12UTC-Dataailablefor72,96and120hourstepsonwxcharts.comatthistimeCMCGlobalDeterministicForecastSystem(GDPS)-Issuingbody-CanadianMeteorologicalCentre,Canada-TheGDPSistheCMC'soperationalmodelandismadeusingtheGlobalEnvironmentalMultiscaleModel(GEM)integratedforecastandassimilationsystem-Runona0.15°(15km)globalgrid-Run2xdailyat00/12UTCDataailableat3hrstepsformostvariablesoutto10days/240hoursARPEGE-ActiondeRecherchePetiteEchelleGrandeEchelle-Issuingbody-Météo-France,France-DevelopedincollaborationwithECMWF-Outputson0.1°x0.1°Europeanlat/longgrid-Europeangridrangesfrom20Nto70N,32Wto42E-Run4xdailyat00/06/12/18UTC-00and12UTCrunshedataoutto102hours.06UTCrungoesto60hours,and18UTCrunto72hours.AROME-ApplicationofResearchtoOperationsatMesoscale-Issuingbody-Météo-France,France-Highestresolutionoutputailableat0.01°x0.01°,approximately1.3km-GridcentredonFrance,butalsoincludesEngland,Wales,Ireland,Benelux,Germany,Alps,NItalyandNSpain-Run5xdailyat00/03/06/12/18UTC(03UTCrunnotdisplayedonwxcharts.com)-00and12UTCrunshedataoutto42hours.06and18UTCrunsgoesto36hours.ICON-EU-IcosahedralNonhydrostaticModelEuropeanNest-Issuingbody-DWD,Germany-Outputsto0.0625°x0.0625°Europeanlat/longridwithbounds29.5Nto70.5N,23.5Wto45E-Run8xdaily,ailableonwxchartsfor00/06/12/18UTCruns-Hourlydataailableoutto60hours(datato120hourscomingsoon)NAM-NorthAmericanMesoscaleforecastsystem-Issuingbody-NOAA,USA-3kmx3kmCONUSNEST-Run4xdailyat00/06/12/18UTC-Dataailableoutto60hours/2.5daysHRRR-HighResolutionRapidRefresh-Issuingbody-NOAA,USA-3kmx3kmCONUSNEST-Runeveryhour(onlyevenhoursdispalyedonwxcharts.comatthistime)-Dataailableoutto18hoursGivesanoverviewofthegeneralweatherpattern.Variablesincluded:precipitationrate,precipitationtype(snowandrainonly),totalcloudamount(%),2mtemperatureandMSLP.Givesanoverviewofvariableskeyforwinterweatherforecasting.Particularfocusonprecipitationtypesincluding:snow,raingraupel,andfreezingrain(FrzR).Snowdepthisalsoshownwheresnowaccumulates.Givesanoverviewofvariableskeyforsevereweatherforecasting.ParticularfocusonCAPE(J/Kg)andBulkShear(kt)forsmallregionsbut500hPaGeopotentialHeight(dm)forbroaderregions.Temperatureat2mabovegroundlevel(L).UnitsinCelsiusforEurope,FahrenheitforNorthAmerica.Temperatureat2mabovegroundlevel(L)withgriddedvalues.UnitsinCelsiusforEurope,FahrenheitforNorthAmerica.Thetemperatureatwhichwaterdropletswouldbegintocondenseat2mL.Thisvarieswithpressureandhumidity.Thecombinedeffectofwindat10mandtemperatureat2monthehumanbody.UnitsarequantifiedasaneffectivetemperatureinCelsiusforEurope,FahrenheitforNorthAmerica.Thedepthofwaterinacolumnoftheatmosphere,ifallthewaterinthatcolumnwereprecipitatedasrain.UnitsinMilimetresforEurope,InchesforNorthAmerica.Maximumtemperatureat2mLinthe3/6/12hourperiodleadingtothehourselected.UnitsinCelsiusforEurope,FahrenheitforNorthAmerica.Minimumtemperatureat2mLinthe3/6/12hourperiodleadingtothehourselected.UnitsinCelsiusforEurope,FahrenheitforNorthAmerica.Theairtemperatureatthesea/watersurface.UnitsinCelsius.Thetemperatureatapproximately1.5km/5000ftabovesealevelwheretheatmosphereistypicallyconsideredfreefromthesurface.Usefulforshowingairmasscharacteristics.UnitsinCelsius.Thelocalspinoftheatmosphere,relatedtoangularmomentum.Wehepositive(anticlockwise)vorticity,whichisusuallyassociatedwithcyclonesintheNorthernHemisphereandnegative(clockwise)vorticity,usuallyassociatedwithanticyclonesintheNorthernHemisphere.Thesustainedwindspeedat10mL(eredover1minute)Thesustainedwindspeedat10mL(eredover1minute)Thesustainedwindspeedat10mL(eredover1minute)Themaximumsustainedwindspeedat10mL(eredover1hour)thatoccuredduringthelasthourThemaximumsustainedwindspeedat10mL(eredover1hour)thatoccuredduringthelasthourThemaximumsustainedwindspeedat10mL(eredover1hour)thatoccuredduringthelasthourThepeakinstantaneouswindgustfeltattheEarth’ssurface.ThepeakinstantaneouswindgustfeltattheEarth’ssurface.ThepeakinstantaneouswindgustfeltattheEarth’ssurface.gregatedwindgustsfromT+0.Showsthemaximumwindgustexpectedspatiallyovertime.UsefulforgaugingwindimpactoffeaturessuchastropicalcyclonesandsqualllinesgregatedwindgustsfromT+0.Showsthemaximumwindgustexpectedspatiallyovertime.UsefulforgaugingwindimpactoffeaturessuchastropicalcyclonesandsqualllinesgregatedwindgustsfromT+0.Showsthemaximumwindgustexpectedspatiallyovertime.UsefulforgaugingwindimpactoffeaturessuchastropicalcyclonesandsqualllinesgregatedmeanwindfromT+0.Showsthemaximumsustainedwindexpectedspatiallyovertime.UsefulforgaugingwindimpactoffeaturessuchastropicalcyclonesandsqualllinesgregatedmeanwindfromT+0.Showsthemaximumsustainedwindexpectedspatiallyovertime.UsefulforgaugingwindimpactoffeaturessuchastropicalcyclonesandsqualllinesgregatedmeanwindfromT+0.Showsthemaximumsustainedwindexpectedspatiallyovertime.UsefulforgaugingwindimpactoffeaturessuchastropicalcyclonesandsqualllinesThesustainedwindspeedat300Hpa.Typicallyaround9kmabovesealevel,thisiswherewecanmonitorthejetstream.Thejetstreamisanarrowribbonoffastmovingairwhichcanhelpdriveanddevelopweathersystems.MeanSeaLevelPressure.Highpressureisusuallyassociatedwithfineweatherandlowpressureisusuallyassociatedwithunsettledweather.Approximately6kmabovesealevel,the500hPageopotentialheightisusefulforrelatingthemid-upperatmosphereprocessestothesurface.ereprecipitationrateforrainandsnow.Instantaneousprecipitationrateregardlessofprecipitationtype.UnitsofdBZ(decibelrelativetoZ)togivecomparisontorawradaroutput.Formostmodelsthisshowsthetotaldepthofsnowandincludesmeltandcompactingprocesses.ForAromeandArpegemodelshowever,thesnowdepthchartsonlyshowaccumulatingdepthofsnowsinceT+0,anddonotincludemeltorcompactionprocesses.Standsfor‘ConvectiveailablePotentialEnergy’.CAPEisameasureofpositivebuoyancyintheatmosphereandisanindicatorofatmosphericinstability.HigherCAPEvaluesareassociatedwiththunderstormsandsevereweather.Ameasureforpotential(cyclonic)rotatingupdrafts,calculatedforthelowest3kmoftheatmosphere.Valuesof250m**2/s**-2andgreaterareconsideredlargeandfourableforrotating(supercell)thunderstorms.Thewinddifferencebetween0–6kmL.Usefulfordeterminingifthunderstormscouldbesupercellular(rotating)ornot.Typically25-40ktmarksthetransitionfromnon-supercelltosupercellthunderstorms.AdimensionlessindexcalculatedusingsurfacebasedCAPE,bulkshearandstormrelativehelicity.Thehigherthevalue,themorelikelysupercellformationgiveninitialconvectiveinitiationtakesplaceComparesthepredicted2mtemperaturetowhatweconsidernormal(a30yearerefromCFSR1979-2010climatology)Comparesthepredictedtemperatureatapproximately1.5kmabovesealeveltowhatweconsidernormal(a30yearerefromCFSR1979-2010climatology).Usefulforknowingifanairmassiscoolerorwarmerthannormal.ThetemperatureintheStratospherearound30kmabovetheearthssurface.UsedtomonitorthepositionofthePolarVortexwhichcanheaninfluenceonwinterweatherattheearthssurfaceThemeantemperaturefromallensemblemembersatapproximately1.5km/5000ftabovesealevel-wheretheatmosphereistypicallyconsideredfreefromthesurface.Usefulforshowingairmasscharacteristics.UnitsinCelsius.Approximately6kmabovesealevel,the500hPageopotentialheightisusefulforrelatingthemid-upperatmosphereprocessestothesurface.MeanSeaLevelPressure.Highpressureisusuallyassociatedwithfineweatherandlowpressureisusuallyassociatedwithunsettledweather.MeanSeaLevelPressure.Highpressureisusuallyassociatedwithfineweatherandlowpressureisusuallyassociatedwithunsettledweather.Comparesthepredictedtemperatureatapproximately1.5kmabovesealeveltowhatweconsidernormal(a30yearerefromCFSR1979-2010climatology).Usefulforknowingifanairmassiscoolerorwarmerthannormal.Shows850hPaatcertaincontourintervalsfromallensemblemembers.Themorethelineslooklikeamessofsphetti,themoreunpredictabletheforecastThetracksoflowpressurecentres(withcoloursrepresentingMSLPdepth)fromeachensemblemember.ECMWFtracksonlyshowlowsofTropicalorigin,whereasGEFStracksshowalllowcentreswithassociatedwindsabove22ktsThetracksoflowpressurecentres(withcoloursrepresentingmaximumstormmean10mwinds)fromeachensemblemember.Thecloserthelinesforagivenstorm,themorepredictablethepath.Theamountofrain(orwaterequivalentofmeltedsnow)accumulatedfromthebeginningoftheforecast.Theamountofrain(orwaterequivalentofmeltedsnow)accumulatedina24hourperiodleadingtothehourselected.AvirtualInfraRed(IR)satelliteimeusingthemodelinfraredradiationemittedbythecloudtops,landoroceansurfaces.AvirtualInfraRed(IR)satelliteimeusingthemodelinfraredradiationemittedbythecloudtops,landoroceansurfaces.AcombinationofthevirtualradarandsatelliteimesTheforecastlowlevel/boundarylayerclouds.Goodtoshowanindicationofpossiblefog/stratusformation.Instantaneousprecipitationrateregardlessofprecipitationtype.Designedtomimicreal-timeradarimes.ThewindsintheStratospherearound30kmabovetheearthssurface.UsedtomonitorthepositionofthePolarVortexwhichcanheaninfluenceonwinterweatherattheearthssurface.Thewesterlycomponentat60Nishighlighted-anegativevalueduringwinterisasignofamajorstratoshpericwarmingwhencombinedwithapolewardincreaseoftemperaturenorthof60NComparesthepredictedtemperatureatapproximately30kmabovesealeveltowhatweconsidernormal(a30yearerefromCFSR1979-2010climatology).Usefulforhighlightingareasofstratosphericwarming.Comparesthepredictedgeopontentialheightat500hPatowhatweconsidernormal(a30yearerefromCFSR1979-2010climatology).Shows500hPageopotentialheightatcertaincontourintervalsfromallensemblemembers.Thebackgroundshadingisthemeanofallensemblemembers.Themorethelineslooklikeamessofsphetti,themoreunpredictabletheforecast.Comparesthepredictedmeanseallevelpressuretowhatweconsidernormal(a30yearerefromCFSR1979-2010climatology).Usefullforshowingwherehigh/lowcentresareunseasonablystrong/weak.ShowsMSLPatcertaincontourintervalsfromallensemblemembers.Thebackgroundshadingisthemeanofallensemblemembers.Themorethelineslooklikeamessofsphetti,themoreunpredictabletheforecast.Showshigh/lowcentresfromallensemblemembers.Thecloserthehighs/lowsaretogetherthemorepredictabletheforecast.Theprobabilityofwindsexceeding34ktfromallensemblemembers.100%probabilitymeansthatallmembershewindsof34ktormoreatagivenlocation.Thepercenteprobabilityatanypointof850hPaTemperaturesgreaterthan20Cbasedonallensemblemembers.Thepercenteprobabilityatanypointof850hPaTemperatureslessthanminus5Cbasedonallensemblemembers.Thenumericaldifferencebetweengeopotentialheightsat500hPaforecastbyECMWFandGFS.NegativevaluesshowwhereECMWFforecaststemperatureslowerthanthoseforecastbyGFS.Thenumericaldifferencebetweentemperaturesat850hPaforecastbyECMWFandGFS.PositivevaluesshowwhereECMWFforecastsheightslargerthanthoseforecastbyGFS.Thepercenteprobabilityatanypointof850hPaTemperatureslessthanminus10Cbasedonallensemblemembers.Apanelcomparingtheforecasttemperatureatapproximately1.5km/5000ftabovesealevelfromeachensemblemember,thecontrol,theirmean,andthedeterministic(GFS).Apanelcomparingtheforecast500hPageopotentialheightfromeachensemblemember,thecontrol,theirmean,andthedeterministic(GFS).Apanelcomparingtheaccumulatedprecipitationforecastfromeachensemblemember,thecontrol,theirmean,andthedeterministic(GFS).Apanelcomparingthemeanwindforecastfromeachensemblemember,control,theirmean,andthedeterministic.Apanelcomparingthesnowdepthforecastfromeachensemblemember,thecontrol,theirmean,andthedeterministic(GFS).Apanelcomparingthemeanseallevelpressureforecastfromeachensemblemember,thecontrol,theirmean,andthedeterministic(GFS).Theprobability(%)ofsnowfallinginthe6hoursleadinguptothevalidtimeonthechart.Apanelcomparingtheforecasttemperatureat2mabovegroundlevelfromeachensemblemember,thecontrol,theirmean,andthedeterministic(GFS).Apanelcomparingthepredictedtemperature2mabovegroundleveltowhatweconsidernormal(a30yearerefromCFSR1979-2010climatology).Thisincludeseachoftheensemblemembers,thecontrol,theirmean,andthedeterministic(GFS).MODELGFSGEFSECMWFHRESECMWFENSUKMOCMCGDPSICON-EUARPEGEAROMENAMCONUSHRRR3kmRUN00UTC06UTC12UTC18UTCREGIONCHARTMeteoGramEnsemble00061218GFS5dGFS10dNAMARPEGEGEFSGFSNAM-CONUS